Product Survival Scan™
Hand-poured seasonal candle — 8oz amber jar (Simulated Example)
Home fragrance · Frisco · Texas · Vendor events + online store
Primary decision
Harvest
Sell what you can now. Avoid new long-horizon inventory commitments.
There is meaningful demand right now, but trend and season dependence with a copyable differentiator make deep long-horizon inventory commitments hard to justify.
What this means
- What supports it
- · Search & Demand Strength: 60/100· Endurance: 30/100· Volume Opportunity vs Supply: 30/100· Trend Vulnerability: 61/100
- What could change it
- · Evidence that a meaningful share of buyers reorder outside the season.· A differentiator competitors cannot reproduce within a season.
- Risk of ignoring it
- Restocking deep into a seasonal scent that six local makers also carry is the most common route to unsold inventory.
- Next best action
- Sell through current stock, shorten the next reorder, and test a refill format before the next season.
A higher Trend Vulnerability Score means greater risk.
Weighted S.U.R.V.I.V.E. total.
Audience, vicinity and price position.
Confidence & data quality
This report combines observable market signals with the private business figures you supplied. Private figures are never shown in samples, demos or competitor comparisons.
Confidence by section
- demandModerate Confidence
- differentiationLimited Confidence
- economicsModerate Confidence
- supplyLimited Confidence
- audienceModerate Confidence
- localLimited Confidence
- enduranceLimited Confidence
What raises confidence
- · Private business figures supplied (cost, sales, margin or inventory).
- · 6 comparable products reviewed.
What lowers confidence
- · No external market data source is connected for this scan.
- · Signal freshness is unknown.
- · 1 conflicting signal(s) disclosed.
Primary vulnerability
The product's demand is tied to a seasonal scent cycle, and the differentiator can be copied by any of the six comparable local makers.
Strongest opportunity
A repeat-purchase format — refills or a subscription two-pack — would convert an occasion purchase into a recurring one.
S.U.R.V.I.V.E. breakdown
Demand looks steady rather than surging. Nothing in the supplied inputs suggests a spike, and nothing suggests collapse.
Evidence: Seller reports steady weekly orders across two seasons (user-provided). · Category interest is described as consistent rather than spiking (inference).
Missing: Independent search-interest trend for the exact product term
The differentiator is real but easy to copy. Nothing in the inputs protects it beyond the maker's own brand.
Evidence: Hand-poured small batch with a custom scent blend (user-provided).
Missing: Evidence that customers can tell the difference in a blind comparison
Margin room exists, but without acquisition cost the true resilience of that margin is unproven.
Evidence: Unit cost $7.40 against a $24 retail price (user-provided). · Return rate reported under 2%.
Missing: Customer acquisition cost · Repeat-purchase rate
Observable competitive supply looks dense relative to the demand described. Listing counts were not retrieved and are not market supply.
Evidence: Seller names six directly comparable makers at the same local markets (user-provided).
Missing: Verified marketplace listing counts · Competitor promotional intensity
The product matches a specific, recurring purchase occasion, which is the strongest signal in this scan.
Evidence: Buyers described as repeat gift purchasers with a clear occasion (user-provided). · Price sits inside the stated gift budget.
Missing: Post-purchase survey evidence
Local relevance is plausible from the seller's own account. No independent local data source was available.
Evidence: Sold at three recurring local markets with returning stallholders (user-provided).
Missing: Local competitor density · Local availability of near-identical products
The product leans on seasonal and trend-led scents, which shortens its natural shelf life as a single SKU.
Evidence: Scent-led seasonal collections drive most of the assortment (user-provided).
Missing: Evidence of year-round repeat purchase
Demand stage
SeasonalPrice Reality Check
- Your price
- $24.00
- Comparison range
- $18.00 – $32.00
- Comparables reviewed
- 6
- Gross margin
- 69%
- Shipping included
- No
Material differences between compared products
- · Two comparables are 9oz rather than 8oz.
- · One comparable includes shipping in the listed price.
- · Wax type differs across three of the six.
Supply versus demand diagnosis
Observable supply looks dense relative to the demand described: six named comparable makers serve the same recurring markets. This is a seller-reported count, not a measured market supply figure.
No marketplace listing data source was connected for this scan, so listing counts are not represented here.
Listing volume is not total market supply, and search interest is not purchase demand.
Local and Community Market Fit
The recurring local markets described by the seller give this product a genuine local occasion. Relevance rests on the seller's own account of returning buyers rather than an independent local data source.
- Geographic market
- Frisco, Texas
- Local availability
- Comparable products are available at the same markets, so local scarcity is not an advantage here.
- Community events & buying occasions
- Recurring weekend markets · Seasonal gift-buying window · Local craft fair calendar
- Distribution & shipping
- Glass jars raise shipping cost and breakage risk, which favours in-person and local delivery over national shipping.
No independent local demographic or spending source was available. Community relevance should be validated directly with buyers rather than assumed.
3-, 12- and 24-month outlook
3 months
Moderate Confidence- Best case:
- The refill format attaches to a meaningful share of orders and current stock clears at full price.
- Most likely:
- Seasonal demand holds, refill attach lands in the single digits, and margin stays intact.
- Downside:
- A comparable maker discounts into the same markets and sell-through slows.
Leading indicators: Weekly units at market · Refill attach rate · Competitor discounting
Strategy trigger: Two consecutive market days below plan moves this to a full harvest posture.
12 months
Moderate Confidence- Best case:
- The anchor scent carries off-season volume and the product stops being purely seasonal.
- Most likely:
- The seasonal cycle repeats with modest growth and continued competitive pressure.
- Downside:
- Repeat purchase never materialises and the SKU becomes a once-a-year item.
Leading indicators: Off-season unit share · Repeat-purchase rate · Number of comparable local makers
Strategy trigger: Off-season share below 8% after two seasons points to replace.
24 months
Moderate Confidence- Best case:
- The line expands into an adjacent home-fragrance format with the same audience.
- Most likely:
- The product remains a seasonal contributor rather than a growth driver.
- Downside:
- Substitution and market saturation erode both price and volume.
Leading indicators: Category substitution · Market stall fee trend · Wholesale interest
Strategy trigger: Price erosion beyond 15% signals a category shift, not a product problem.
Product Life Extension Plan
Launch a refill or two-pack format at $34
Endurance scored 30/100 because the product depends on a seasonal scent cycle.
Converts a one-off occasion purchase into a repeat purchase without new tooling.
- Success metric
- At least 15% of orders include the refill option.
- Continue if
- Refill attach rate above 15% for three consecutive market days.
- Stop if
- Attach rate below 5% after 200 transactions.
Build one non-seasonal anchor scent
All current volume rides the seasonal collection, which is the primary vulnerability.
Gives the product a year-round base that survives the seasonal cycle.
- Success metric
- Anchor scent reaches 20% of units in an off-season month.
- Continue if
- Off-season units hold above 20%.
- Stop if
- Off-season units stay below 8% after two months.
Document the batch process on the label and listing
Uniqueness scored 45/100 — the differentiator is real but invisible at the point of sale.
Makes the premium legible without raising unit cost.
- Success metric
- Conversion at the same price improves versus the prior four market days.
- Continue if
- Any measurable conversion lift.
- Stop if
- No change after 150 interactions.
Cap the next reorder at 60% of the prior quantity
Trend Vulnerability of 61/100 with seasonal dependence makes deep stock a real exposure.
Reduces the capital at risk while the refill and anchor tests run.
- Success metric
- Sell-through above 85% before the next reorder.
- Continue if
- Sell-through holds above 85%.
- Stop if
- Stockouts cost more than two market days of sales.
90-Day Product Survival Plan
Days 1–30 — Validate
- Close data gap: Customer acquisition costhighnot started
This gap is reducing the confidence of the whole report. Resolving it may change the recommendation.
- Success metric:
- The figure is recorded and a new scan version is run.
- Evidence:
- Ad platform spend divided by new customers.
- Trigger:
- If acquisition cost exceeds 25% of price, revenue resilience drops a band.
- Due:
- 2026-04-03
- Test the weakest factor: Volume Opportunity vs Supplyhighin progress
Volume Opportunity vs Supply scored 30/100 — the lowest usable factor in this scan.
- Success metric:
- A count of comparable makers and their price points at the next three markets.
- Evidence:
- Direct observation at market.
- Trigger:
- More than eight comparable makers moves this toward replace.
- Due:
- 2026-04-03
Days 31–60 — Strengthen
- Launch a refill or two-pack format at $34highnot started
Endurance scored 30/100 because the product depends on a seasonal scent cycle.
- Success metric:
- At least 15% of orders include the refill option.
- Evidence:
- Result of the 3-week test.
- Trigger:
- Continue if attach rate is above 15%. Stop if below 5% after 200 transactions.
- Due:
- 2026-05-03
- Build one non-seasonal anchor scentmediumnot started
All current volume rides the seasonal collection, which is the primary vulnerability.
- Success metric:
- Anchor scent reaches 20% of units in an off-season month.
- Evidence:
- Result of the 6-week test.
- Trigger:
- Continue if off-season units hold above 20%.
- Due:
- 2026-05-03
Days 61–90 — Decide
- Re-run the scan and confirm or change the "harvest" decisionhighnot started
Create a new scan version with everything learned, then commit to a path.
- Success metric:
- A written decision with the inventory and spend commitment attached to it.
- Evidence:
- Updated sales, margin, inventory and competitor observations.
- Trigger:
- Any factor moving 20+ points changes the recommended path.
- Due:
- 2026-06-02
- Set the inventory and spend commitment for the next quartermediumnot started
Size the reorder to the confirmed decision. A harvest posture should shorten reorder quantities.
- Success metric:
- Reorder quantity and ad budget documented against the decision.
- Evidence:
- Sell-through rate and reorder lead time.
- Trigger:
- Sell-through below plan for two periods triggers a deeper harvest posture.
- Due:
- 2026-06-02
Evidence, sources and missing information
Data sources
- Search interest indexproxy signalNot connected
- Competitive pricingproxy signalNot connected
- Local demographicsproxy signalNot connected
- User-supplied performance dataReturned data
Missing information
- · Customer acquisition cost
- · Repeat-purchase rate
- · Independent search-interest trend for the exact product term
- · Verified marketplace listing counts
Conflicting signals
- · Steady weekly orders sit alongside a dense set of comparable local makers — one suggests durable demand, the other suggests it is easily contested.
Limitations & disclaimer
- · Search interest is not purchase demand.
- · Listing volume is not total market supply.
- · Price comparisons may involve imperfect substitutes.
- · Local and cultural conclusions are probabilistic.
- · Data availability and freshness vary by source.
- · Regulated product categories may require professional review.
Product Survival Scan provides decision-support estimates based on available market information, user inputs, and observable signals. Results are not guarantees of demand, sales, profitability, inventory performance, or future market conditions. Business owners remain responsible for purchasing, pricing, investment, legal, regulatory, and operational decisions.
Scoring rules pss-1.0.0 · Analysis simulated ·
Recommended next step
Brand Battlecards
Differentiation or competitive supply is the binding constraint.
